ABSTRACT OF PAPER
Title: Why the forecasting failure? A Hayekian and "Keynesian" answer
Author: Giocoli Nicola
The following pages offer a tentative, and admittedly partial, answer to the well-known failure of economic forecasts, an old issue that has received renewed attention after the financial crisis. My answer is based on the lesson that may be drawn borrowing from the wisdom of a short list of big names of past and present economics: Hayek (§1), Neville Keynes (§2), Mankiw, Tinbergen, Maynard Keynes and Lucas (§4). The glue to keep such an odd bunch together is provided by science historian Ted Porter (§3). A natural science field that recently managed to survive a similar credibility crisis offers a success story to imitate (§5).
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